Market Insight
Tony Jordan
2 April 2024

Market Insights 02/04/2024


Welcome to April and of course to the start of the summer delivery period. We hope you had a good Easter weekend.

The long term weather outlook keeps changing and the latest run shows a warm week ahead and then slowly settling to seasonal normal towards the end of the month and into May.

That may help offset the low volume of LNG expected to arrive in the weeks ahead as Freeport LNG continues to prolong part of its outage which has dented its output level (although not put it offline).

Before the long weekend, Thursday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €27.34 (from €27.76) and the NBP Front Month contract at 68.05p (from 69.56p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 344mcm (341). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 39.2mcm (40.1) and Sudzha at 40.2mcm (42.4). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 58.72% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 2.

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €27, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €27, Front Season €32 (vs €27 and €32)
Curve NBP Front Month 68p, Front Season 83p (vs 70p and 83p)
UK Gas NBP spot 70p (from 69p)
UK Power DA £67 (from £62)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £59 (£62) and Front Season at £77 (£63).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $87 ($86) and EUAs are at €62 (€62). Henry Hub is at $1.76 ($1.72) and JKM is at $9.54 ($9.40) with TTF Equiv of $8.65 ($8.81).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.