Market Insight
Tony Jordan
27 March 2024

Market Insights 27/03/2024


A downward session seen yesterday to unwind the gains seen of Monday as the market continues to hold pattern in this trading zone.

We formally reach the end of the winter delivery period in the coming days and next winter contract becomes the front season. We end the season with an impressive level of gas held across EU storage sites, almost 60%, which is likely to be the highest value for some time and just about beat the 2020 value.

Values from the Ukraine system operator are unavailable this morning, therefore the Velke and Sudzha values below are not updated.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €27.13 (from €28.49) and the NBP Front Month contract at 69.14p (from 73.41p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 347mcm (343). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 40.5mcm (40.5) and Sudzha at 42.4mcm (42.4). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 59.03% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 2.

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €27, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €27, Front Season €27 (vs €27 and €29)
Curve NBP Front Month 69p, Front Season 69p (vs 73p and 72p)
UK Gas NBP spot 69p (from 74p)
UK Power DA £62 (from £72)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £62 (£65) and Front Season at £63 (£66).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $86 ($87) and EUAs are at €62 (€65). Henry Hub is at $1.79 ($1.62) and JKM is at $9.58 ($9.72) with TTF Equiv of $8.61 ($9.05).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.