Market Insight
Tony Jordan
25 March 2024

Market Insights 25/03/2024


A bullish session to end the week as Ukrainian energy infrastructure was attacked, impacting gas storage facilities and resulting in electricity to be imported.

Terrorist attacks in Moscow have also escalated further tension in the area and markets are likely to be sensitive in the near term.

In the UK, weekend electricity prices were considerably low (negative for much of the day on Saturday) with an average price of £11/MWh for Saturday thanks to high wind generation, accounting for two-thirds of the stack.

Friday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €27.78 (from €26.40) and the NBP Front Month contract at 71.74p (from 68.37p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 346mcm (340). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 39.4mcm (39.7) and Sudzha at 42.1mcm (42.4). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 59.17% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 4.

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €28, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €28, Front Season €28 (vs €28 and €27)
Curve NBP Front Month 72p, Front Season 70p (vs 68p and 67p)
UK Gas NBP spot 73p (from 70p)
UK Power DA £72 (from £52)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £63 (£61) and Front Season at £64 (£62).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $85 ($86) and EUAs are at €62 (€59). Henry Hub is at $1.66 ($1.68) and JKM is at $9.45 ($9.29) with TTF Equiv of $8.80 ($8.40).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.