Market Insight
Tony Jordan
18 March 2024

Market Insights 18/03/2024


An uptick in prices in recent sessions as the market deals with some news.

With earthquake activity in Japan, increasing demand for LNG in China and continued attacks on shipping in the Red Sea – coupled with more local supply blips like those seen today – make for a slightly nervous market.

It was reported, but seemingly unconfirmed by UKMTO at this point, that a ‘fuel related’ vessel may have been attacked in recent days in the Red Sea.

Friday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €27.03 (from €26.05) and the NBP Front Month contract at 68.01p (from 65.27p).

Aasta Hansteen on unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 328mcm (343). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 39.5mcm (39.9) and Sudzha at 42.1mcm (42.4). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 59.67% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 5.

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €28, UP €1 to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €28, Front Season €27 (vs €27 and €26)
Curve NBP Front Month 68p, Front Season 67p (vs 65p and 65p)
UK Gas NBP spot 68p (from 65p)
UK Power DA £67 (from £59)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £63 (£61) and Front Season at £63 (£60).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $85 ($85) and EUAs are at €59 (€58). Henry Hub is at $1.66 ($1.74) and JKM is at $9.40 ($8.49) with TTF Equiv of $8.63 ($8.32).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.