Market Insight
Tony Jordan
15 March 2024

Market Insights 15/03/2024


Bit of an uptick in yesterdays session, mostly on concern around an earthquake in Japan which may lead to increased demand for LNG.

The latest long term temperature forecasts show little change to the previous, and storage is now just below 60% – still an impressive value for this time of year.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €26.05 (from €24.90) and the NBP Front Month contract at 65.27p (from 62.40p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 343mcm (338). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 39.9mcm (39.9) and Sudzha at 42.4mcm (42.4). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 59.88% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 4.

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €26, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €26, Front Season €26 (vs €26 and €25)
Curve NBP Front Month 65p, Front Season 65p (vs 62p and 62p)
UK Gas NBP spot 65p (from 61p)
UK Power DA £59 (from £60)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £61 (£59) and Front Season at £60 (£58).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $85 ($84) and EUAs are at €58 (€56). Henry Hub is at $1.74 ($1.66) and JKM is at $8.49 ($8.48) with TTF Equiv of $8.32 ($7.99).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.