Market Insight
Tony Jordan
12 March 2024

Market Insights 12/03/2024


A bearish session to get the week underway after a topsy turvy set of sessions seen last week.

The latest long term weather runs show an improved outlook with temperatures now expected to stay above seasonal normal until late March and then very close to seasonal normal throughout April.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €24.93 (from €26.39) and the NBP Front Month contract at 62.37p (from 65.79p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 337mcm (343). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 39.8mcm (39.1) and Sudzha at 42.4mcm (42.0). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 60.59% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 2.

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €25, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €25, Front Season €25 (vs €25 and €27)
Curve NBP Front Month 62p, Front Season 63p (vs 66p and 66p)
UK Gas NBP spot 71p (from 69p)
UK Power DA £66 (from £69)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £58 (£61) and Front Season at £59 (£61).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $82 ($82) and EUAs are at €56 (€58). Henry Hub is at $1.76 ($1.81) and JKM is at $8.47 ($8.46) with TTF Equiv of $7.99 ($8.47).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.