Market Insight
Tony Jordan
6 March 2024

Market Insights 06/03/2024


Another upward session seen yesterday as we bounce off the lows seen in late February.

No sudden change to the overall outlook with healthy gas storage levels, slightly colder than seasonal normal temperatures forecast for the coming weeks and low levels of LNG arrivals in that time – which of course will be putting some degree of negativity on the market – but these things can change very quickly.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €27.47 (from €26.89) and the NBP Front Month contract at 68.70p (from 67.36p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 345mcm (343). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 39.4mcm (39.4) and Sudzha at 42.4mcm (42.4). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 61.91% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 2.

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €27, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €27, Front Season €28 (vs €27 and €27)
Curve NBP Front Month 69p, Front Season 69p (vs 67p and 68p)
UK Gas NBP spot 71p (from 68p)
UK Power DA £71 (from £64)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £64 (£62) and Front Season at £64 (£62).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $82 ($83) and EUAs are at €61 (€57). Henry Hub is at $1.96 ($1.92) and JKM is at $8.38 ($8.34) with TTF Equiv of $8.76 ($8.56).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.