Market Insight
Tony Jordan
5 March 2024

Market Insights 05/03/2024


A nervous market on display yesterday as the morning session showed strong downside before news of a ship attack in the Red Sea area in the early afternoon saw markets react violently with a 10% increase to near term products before retreating late in the session.

This confirms the nervousness of the market hasn’t vanished and news from global events that could impact the delivery of energy can, and will, move the market.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €26.89 (from €25.81) and the NBP Front Month contract at 67.36p (from 64.28p).

Karsto on unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 343mcm (347). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 39.4mcm (39.0) and Sudzha at 42.4mcm (42.0). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 62.10% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 2.

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €27, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €27, Front Season €27 (vs €27 and €26)
Curve NBP Front Month 67p, Front Season 68p (vs 64p and 65p)
UK Gas NBP spot 68p (from 64p)
UK Power DA £64 (from £67)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £62 (£60) and Front Season at £62 (£61).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $83 ($84) and EUAs are at €57 (€56). Henry Hub is at $1.92 ($1.84) and JKM is at $8.34 ($8.30) with TTF Equiv of $8.56 ($8.20).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.