Market Insight
Tony Jordan
4 March 2024

Market Insights 04/03/2024


An upward session to end the week, undoing the fall seen on Thursday which in itself was undoing the gains seen in Wednesdays session.

We’re now in the final delivery month of winter delivery and EU gas storage has held impressive levels, very similar to that of last year and also of 2020 – both years saw prices relax during the summer where storage refills were not required to be aggressive, unlike 2021 and 2022 where prices quickly rose with low storage levels. Of course only time will tell what we have instore for this year.

Friday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €25.81 (from €24.87) and the NBP Front Month contract at 64.28p (from 61.58p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 347mcm (337). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 39.0mcm (39.4) and Sudzha at 42.0mcm (42.4). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 62.12% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 2.

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €25, DOWN €1 to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €25, Front Season €26 (vs €26 and €25)
Curve NBP Front Month 64p, Front Season 65p (vs 62p and 62p)
UK Gas NBP spot 64p (from 64p)
UK Power DA £67 (from £65)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £60 (£59) and Front Season at £61 (£59).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $84 ($82) and EUAs are at €56 (€56). Henry Hub is at $1.84 ($1.86) and JKM is at $8.30 ($8.37) with TTF Equiv of $8.20 ($7.89).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.