Market Insight
Tony Jordan
1 March 2024

Market Insights 01/03/2024


Welcome along to March!

A downward movement seen across the board yesterday as these current levels are tested, as we described yesterday, and we could see this for a few sessions yet.

The latest long term temperature outlooks are unchanged with a cold start to the month followed by around or just below seasonal normal expected until mid-April. This will also have an impact on that bounce effect if demand is expected to remain slightly higher as we exit winter delivey.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €24.87 (from €25.60) and the NBP Front Month contract at 61.58p (from 63.67p).

Troll is on unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 337mcm (337). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 39.4mcm (40.6) and Sudzha at 42.4mcm (42.4). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 62.78% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 4.

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €25, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €25, Front Season €25 (vs €25 and €26)
Curve NBP Front Month 62p, Front Season 62p (vs 64p and 64p)
UK Gas NBP spot 64p (from 66p)
UK Power DA £63 (from £59)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £59 (£61) and Front Season at £59 (£61).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $82 ($84) and EUAs are at €56 (€58). Henry Hub is at $1.86 ($1.89) and JKM is at $8.37 ($8.50) with TTF Equiv of $7.89 ($8.14).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.