Market Insight
Tony Jordan
29 February 2024

Market Insights 29/02/2024


More upward movement in yesterdays session as we bounce away from those low levels set last week. However that’s not to say we’re just on the way up.

Looking forwards we still have an impressive storage count, heading quickly out of winter delivery with new front month contracts today, although temperature forecasts for March into early April currently suggest they’ll be slightly on the colder side – this can change in the coming days and weeks. It’s therefore likely this is a bit of a ‘correction’ and the market may bounce around in a bit of an envelope for the time being – as it previously has done many times in recent months.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €25.60 (from €24.39) and the NBP Front Month contract at 63.67p (from 60.60p).

Skarv is on unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 337mcm (339). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 40.6mcm (40.6) and Sudzha at 42.4mcm (42.4). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 63.13% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 4.

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €26, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €26, Front Season €26 (vs €26 and €25)
Curve NBP Front Month 64p, Front Season 64p (vs 61p and 61p)
UK Gas NBP spot 66p (from 62p)
UK Power DA £59 (from £60)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £61 (£59) and Front Season at £61 (£56).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $84 ($84) and EUAs are at €58 (€56). Henry Hub is at $1.89 ($1.81) and JKM is at $8.50 ($8.22) with TTF Equiv of $8.14 ($7.76).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.