Market Insight
Tony Jordan
27 February 2024

Market Insights 27/02/2024


A bounce seen in yesterdays session to kick the week off – likely in response to the market enjoying a series of bearish sessions pushing to long term low points – and resistance being tested.

Yesterday we launched our new YouTube channel with our initial video series taking a look at the Ofgem Price Cap. Be sure to take a look

Within that series we touch on the impact of Nord Stream 2 AG on the price cap. Recently we have seen Sweden close its investigation and yesterday Denmark has done the same – both stating it was damaged intentionally but without naming the culprit – and handing over their case file to Germany who have stated they are keen to fully conclude the investigation.

QatarEnergy have announced thieir intention to increase LNG production over the coming years and be a global leader in exports. This will be welcome news as the US is currently in debate over its future LNG export plans – again something we touch on in our video series in the new global market that we are subject to.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €24.01 (from €22.93) and the NBP Front Month contract at 59.30p (from 56.46p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 343mcm (345). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 40.6mcm (38.7) and Sudzha at 42.4mcm (41.3). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 63.86% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 5.

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €24, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €24, Front Season €24 (vs €24 and €23)
Curve NBP Front Month 59p, Front Season 60p (vs 56p and 57p)
UK Gas NBP spot 62p (from 56p)
UK Power DA £61 (from £59)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £58 (£56) and Front Season at £57 (£55).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $83 ($82) and EUAs are at €54 (€52). Henry Hub is at $1.66 ($1.60) and JKM is at $8.30 ($8.13) with TTF Equiv of $7.64 ($7.28).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.