Market Insight
Tony Jordan
21 February 2024

Market Insights 21/02/2024


A small uptick in yesterdays session as some of the Norwegian assets slow production slightly.

As mentioned yesterday, we’re currently sat at price levels not seen for some time so these levels will be tested, however the underlying picture seems to be that we could go lower still with gas storage withdrawals slowing of late and holding around two-thirds full.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €24.17 (from €23.70) and the NBP Front Month contract at 59.29p (from 58.20p).

Karsto and Aasta Hansteen on unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 3426mcm (340). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 40.0mcm (40.6) and Sudzha at 42.4mcm (42.4). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 65.12% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 4.

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €24, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €24, Front Season €25 (vs €24 and €24)
Curve NBP Front Month 59p, Front Season 60p (vs 58p and 59p)
UK Gas NBP spot 59p (from 54p)
UK Power DA £53 (from £57)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £57 (£55) and Front Season at £56 (£55).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $82 ($84) and EUAs are at €54 (€55). Henry Hub is at $1.58 ($1.61) and JKM is at $8.37 ($8.57) with TTF Equiv of $7.67 ($7.49).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.