Market Insight
Tony Jordan
20 February 2024

Market Insights 20/02/2024


A bearish session to get the week underway, pushing values to new lows.

The latest long term temperature runs show seasonal normal to now be expected until mid-March before dipping below – an improved outlook from recent forecasts as we look towards the end of winter delivery.

Current price levels are now in territory we considered as ‘normal’ for this time of year in pre-crisis times. The question is will this now continue for the rest of the year.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €23.70 (from €24.82) and the NBP Front Month contract at 58.20p (from 60.56p).

Karsto on unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 340mcm (340). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 40.6mcm (38.0) and Sudzha at 42.4mcm (40.6). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 65.32% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 3.

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €24, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €24, Front Season €24 (vs €24 and €25)
Curve NBP Front Month 58p, Front Season 59p (vs 61p and 62p)
UK Gas NBP spot 54p (from 53p)
UK Power DA £57 (from £57)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £55 (£57) and Front Season at £55 (£57).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $84 ($83) and EUAs are at €54 (€57). Henry Hub is at $1.61 ($1.61) and JKM is at $8.57 ($8.57) with TTF Equiv of $7.49 ($7.84).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.