Market Insight
Tony Jordan
16 February 2024

Market Insights 16/02/2024


A level outcome in yesterdays session with very little movement to the previous at the end of the day.

The latest temperature runs are largely unchanged with some warm days ahead before dipping just below seasonal normal for the final few days of February. Into March, it is currently forecast to stay below seasonal normal levels.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €24.97 (from €24.86) and the NBP Front Month contract at 61.10p (from 61.07p).

Kollsnes on unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 315mcm (344). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 39.3mcm (40.8) and Sudzha at 42.4mcm (42.4). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 65.94% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 7.

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €25, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €25, Front Season €26 (vs €25 and €26)
Curve NBP Front Month 61p, Front Season 62p (vs 61p and 62p)
UK Gas NBP spot 60p (from 57p)
UK Power DA £61 (from £62)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £58 (£58) and Front Season at £58 (£58).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $83 ($82) and EUAs are at €58 (€57). Henry Hub is at $1.58 ($1.61) and JKM is at $8.59 ($9.37) with TTF Equiv of $7.88 ($7.82).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.