Market Insight
Tony Jordan
15 February 2024

Market Insights 15/02/2024


A small further downward move in yesterdays session as markets seek to get comfortable with new levels amidst coming to the end of winter delivery.

Outlook remains unchanged with temperatures expected to remain close to seasonal normal for the remaining weeks of winter delivery, EU stocks holding at very comfortable levels – meaning less injections required this summer for next winter – and issues in the Red Sea affecting LNG shipping appear to have limited impact with route diversions.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €24.86 (from €25.44) and the NBP Front Month contract at 61.07p (from 62.19p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 344mcm (344). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 40.8mcm (40.0) and Sudzha at 42.4mcm (42.4). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 66.22% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 6.

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €25, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €25, Front Season €26 (vs €25 and €26)
Curve NBP Front Month 61p, Front Season 62p (vs 62p and 63p)
UK Gas NBP spot 57p (from 63p)
UK Power DA £62 (from £65)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £58 (£59) and Front Season at £58 (£59).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $82 ($83) and EUAs are at €57 (€56). Henry Hub is at $1.61 ($1.69) and JKM is at $9.37 ($9.41) with TTF Equiv of $7.82 ($8.00).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.