Market Insight
Tony Jordan
14 February 2024

Market Insights 14/02/2024


A mixed session yesterday but ending on a bearish note come the end of the session as the outlook remains to instil confidence with EU gas stocks holding two-thirds of capacity with just six weeks of winter delivery remaining.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €25.44 (from €25.73) and the NBP Front Month contract at 62.19p (from 62.65p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 344mcm (346). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 40.0mcm (39.2) and Sudzha at 42.4mcm (42.4). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 66.58% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 5.

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €25, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €25, Front Season €26 (vs €25 and €26)
Curve NBP Front Month 62p, Front Season 63p (vs 63p and 64p)
UK Gas NBP spot 63p (from 60p)
UK Power DA £65 (from £65)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £59 (£60) and Front Season at £59 (£63).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $83 ($82) and EUAs are at €56 (€57). Henry Hub is at $1.69 ($1.77) and JKM is at $9.41 ($9.44) with TTF Equiv of $8.00 ($8.13).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.