Market Insight
Tony Jordan
13 February 2024

Market Insights 13/02/2024


The bearish sentiment continued in yesterdays session to get the week underway to push contracts to new lows not seen for some time.

The latest long-term view of temperatures shows a warm period for the next 10 days or so, before dipping below seasonal normal until late March.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €25.73 (from €27.12) and the NBP Front Month contract at 62.65p (from 66.42p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 346mcm (347). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 39.2mcm (38.2) and Sudzha at 42.4mcm (41.3). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 67.10% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 6.

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €26, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €26, Front Season €26 (vs €26 and €28)
Curve NBP Front Month 63p, Front Season 64p (vs 66p and 67p)
UK Gas NBP spot 60p (from 64p)
UK Power DA £65 (from £65)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £60 (£63) and Front Season at £63 (£61).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $82 ($82) and EUAs are at €57 (€59). Henry Hub is at $1.77 ($1.85) and JKM is at $9.44 ($9.44) with TTF Equiv of $8.13 ($8.58).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.