Market Insight
Tony Jordan
12 February 2024

Market Insights 12/02/2024


A bearish end to the week with some further downside in Fridays session, as the weather forecast for the weeks ahead look to improve.

Temperatures for the rest of February and into March had been forecast to fall below seasonal levels around now for some time, but late last week forecasts were showing improved outlooks and more seasonal levels to be expected with a ‘warm’ spell for the current days ahead.

Friday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €27.12 (from €27.81) and the NBP Front Month contract at 66.42p (from 68.35p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 347mcm (343). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 38.2mcm (39.2) and Sudzha at 41.3mcm (42.4). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 67.02% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 6.

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €26, DOWN €1 to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €26, Front Season €28 (vs €27 and €28)
Curve NBP Front Month 66p, Front Season 67p (vs 68p and 69p)
UK Gas NBP spot 64p (from 72p)
UK Power DA £65 (from £60)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £63 (£64) and Front Season at £61 (£63).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $82 ($82) and EUAs are at €59 (€61). Henry Hub is at $1.85 ($1.92) and JKM is at $9.44 ($9.45) with TTF Equiv of $8.58 ($8.78).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.