Market Insight
Tony Jordan
9 February 2024

Market Insights 09/02/2024


The calm continues, as markets held the late range with little movement in yesterdays session.

This could be helped by the fact that the latest weather runs show an improved outlook with warm temperatures to the end of February followed by seasonal normal temperatures expected through towards the end of March – which previously showed a slightly colder outlook.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €27.81 (from €28.19) and the NBP Front Month contract at 68.35p (from 69.98p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 343mcm (321). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 39.2mcm (39.2) and Sudzha at 42.4mcm (42.4). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 67.87% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 6.

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €27, DOWN €1 to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €27, Front Season €28 (vs €28 and €29)
Curve NBP Front Month 68p, Front Season 69p (vs 70p and 70p)
UK Gas NBP spot 72p (from 70p)
UK Power DA £60 (from £70)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £64 (£64) and Front Season at £63 (£63).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $82 ($79) and EUAs are at €61 (€62). Henry Hub is at $1.92 ($1.97) and JKM is at $9.45 ($9.45) with TTF Equiv of $8.78 ($8.90).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.