Market Insight
Tony Jordan
7 February 2024

Market Insights 07/02/2024


A very small upside seen in yesterdays session, but appears already eroded in first trades this morning.

No change to the overall outlook with some colder temperatures on the way, and level supply outlook, despite a continued unplanned outage in Norway, including just under 70% held in gas storage across the EU.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €28.61 (from €28.34) and the NBP Front Month contract at 70.09p (from 69.33p).

Nyhamna and Troll remain on unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 327mcm (318). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 39.2mcm (39.2) and Sudzha at 42.4mcm (42.4). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 68.61% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 8.

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €28, DOWN €1 to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €28, Front Season €29 (vs €29 and €29)
Curve NBP Front Month 70p, Front Season 71p (vs 69p and 71p)
UK Gas NBP spot 70p (from 69p)
UK Power DA £75 (from £56)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £66 (£66) and Front Season at £65 (£65).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $79 ($78) and EUAs are at €64 (€63). Henry Hub is at $2.01 ($2.08) and JKM is at $9.47 ($9.46) with TTF Equiv of $9.02 ($8.92).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.