Market Insight
Tony Jordan
6 February 2024

Market Insights 06/02/2024


A bearish start to the week as we dip once again below some key levels.

The temperature forecasts remain unchanged with some colder than normal levels expected from this weekend and will remain until well into March based on the latest forecasts. That will put some pressure on supply, but that itself remains to look healthy.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €28.34 (from €29.30) and the NBP Front Month contract at 69.33p (from 71.48p).

Nyhamna and Troll on unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 318mcm (290). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 39.2mcm (39.5) and Sudzha at 42.4mcm (42.1). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 68.92% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 8.

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €28, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €28, Front Season €29 (vs €28 and €30)
Curve NBP Front Month 69p, Front Season 71p (vs 71p and 73p)
UK Gas NBP spot 69p (from 75p)
UK Power DA £56 (from £51)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £66 (£68) and Front Season at £65 (£67).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $78 ($77) and EUAs are at €63 (€63). Henry Hub is at $2.08 ($2.08) and JKM is at $9.46 ($9.46) with TTF Equiv of $8.92 ($9.27).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.