Market Insight
Tony Jordan
2 February 2024

Market Insights 02/02/2024


As you were … yesterdays session once again a bearish one and unwinding much of the previous days session.

Some nerves clearly remaining, as to potential supply issues with some colder temperatures arriving in a week or so which are forecast to remain well into March, but overall a downward trend is still being pushed.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €28.99 (from €30.24) and the NBP Front Month contract at 71.25p (from 74.30p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 347mcm (346). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 40.0mcm (39.9) and Sudzha at 42.4mcm (42.4). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 70.17% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 5.

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €29, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €29, Front Season €30 (vs €29 and €31)
Curve NBP Front Month 71p, Front Season 73p (vs 74p and 75p)
UK Gas NBP spot 70p (from 75p)
UK Power DA £59 (from £65)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £67 (£67) and Front Season at £66 (£66).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $79 ($81) and EUAs are at €62 (€64). Henry Hub is at $2.05 ($2.10) and JKM is at $9.46 ($9.53) with TTF Equiv of $9.23 ($9.62).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.