Market Insight
Tony Jordan
1 February 2024

Market Insights 01/02/2024


Welcome along to February. Just 8 weeks or so left of winter delivery.

Yesterday saw a short outage of Kollnes, which is back online this morning, prompting an upward movement in market prices. So far the Norwegian fleet hasn’t suffered too much this winter which is a positive sign.

Outlook remains unchanged from previous days. Market prices have crept just the wrong side of psychological levels which may be a barrier with some colder temperatures due in the coming weeks.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €30.24 (from €29.58) and the NBP Front Month contract at 74.30p (from 72.45p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 346mcm (348). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 39.9mcm (40.3) and Sudzha at 42.4mcm (42.4). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 70.60% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 6.

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €30, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €30, Front Season €31 (vs €30 and €30)
Curve NBP Front Month 74p, Front Season 75p (vs 72p and 74p)
UK Gas NBP spot 75p (from 73p)
UK Power DA £65 (from £64)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £67 (£68) and Front Season at £66 (£63).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $81 ($83) and EUAs are at €64 (€64). Henry Hub is at $2.10 ($2.08) and JKM is at $9.53 ($9.48) with TTF Equiv of $9.62 ($9.41).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.