Market Insight
Tony Jordan
30 January 2024

Market Insights 30/01/2024


Another mixed session to get the week started yesterday as we saw prices up in the morning but ending level by the close.

Temperature outlooks remain unchanged in the latest runs with warmer than normal levels for the coming week or so before dipping below for the following month.

That, alongside any developments impacting LNG deliveries towards Europe, will keep markets alert – although so far impact appears limited on both counts as price levels hold trajectory in recent weeks.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €28.17 (from €28.08) and the NBP Front Month contract at 69.48p (from 69.35p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 346mcm (348). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 40.4mcm (40.0) and Sudzha at 42.4mcm (42.1). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 71.54% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 8.

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €27, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €28, Front Season €29 (vs €28 and €29)
Curve NBP Front Month 69p, Front Season 71p (vs 70p and 71p)
UK Gas NBP spot 72p (from 72p)
UK Power DA £70 (from £71)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £66 (£66) and Front Season at £63 (£63).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $82 ($84) and EUAs are at €62 (€64). Henry Hub is at $2.05 ($2.71) and JKM is at $9.39 ($9.29) with TTF Equiv of $8.92 ($8.95).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.