Market Insight
Tony Jordan
29 January 2024

Market Insights 29/01/2024


A mixed session on Friday, pushed upwards in the afternoon by news of an oil tanker in the Red Sea hit by a missile, although the overall session ended flat to the previous.

News such as this will ‘spook’ the market, however impact appears to be limited.

Colder temperatures forecast for the second half of Feb and into March remain unchanged, as does the outlook for supply and EU storage levels which continue to decline at a slow pace.

Friday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €28.08 (from €27.78) and the NBP Front Month contract at 69.35p (from 64.48p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 348mcm (350). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 40.0mcm (40.7) and Sudzha at 42.1mcm (42.4). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 72.02% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 7.

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €28, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €28, Front Season €29 (vs €28 and €29)
Curve NBP Front Month 70p, Front Season 71p (vs 68p and 70p)
UK Gas NBP spot 72p (from 69p)
UK Power DA £71 (from £60)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £66 (£66) and Front Season at £63 (£64).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $84 ($82) and EUAs are at €64 (€63). Henry Hub is at $2.71 ($2.57) and JKM is at $9.29 ($9.39) with TTF Equiv of $8.95 ($8.83).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.