Market Insight
Tony Jordan
26 January 2024

Market Insights 26/01/2024


An ‘as you were’ day yesterday as Wednesdays gains were eroded in Thursdays session.

This may be the holding pattern we see whilst we head towards the end of the winter period with little to push the market firmly in either direction.

Supply appears to hold firm, gas storage declining slowly at less than 0.5% per day meaning we’ll likely end the season with just under 50% full at this rate. Cold weather risk is being monitored, and the latest forecasts show to expect below seasonal normal levels after 10th February and into March – but not significantly below.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €27.78 (from €28.93) and the NBP Front Month contract at 68.48p (from 71.37p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 350mcm (348). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 40.7mcm (40.4) and Sudzha at 42.4mcm (42.4). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 73.04% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 9.

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €27, DOWN €1 to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €27, Front Season €29 (vs €28 and €30)
Curve NBP Front Month 68p, Front Season 70p (vs 71p and 72p)
UK Gas NBP spot 69p (from 69p)
UK Power DA £60 (from £68)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £66 (£65) and Front Season at £64 (£65).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $82 ($80) and EUAs are at €63 (€66). Henry Hub is at $2.57 ($2.64) and JKM is at $9.39 ($9.58) with TTF Equiv of $8.83 ($9.25).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.