Market Insight
Tony Jordan
25 January 2024

Market Insights 25/01/2024


A slight uptick in yesterdays session, as February appears a month of two halves in terms of forecast temperatures.

In recent forecasts it has been showing for a warm start and seasonal normal end, however the latest runs now show that as a potentially colder second half of the month than previous views.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €28.93 (from €27.23) and the NBP Front Month contract at 71.37p (from 66.75p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 348mcm (345). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 40.4mcm (40.7) and Sudzha at 42.4mcm (42.4). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 73.46% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 11.

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €29, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €29, Front Season €30 (vs €29 and €28)
Curve NBP Front Month 71p, Front Season 72p (vs 67p and 68p)
UK Gas NBP spot 69p (from 70p)
UK Power DA £68 (from £50)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £65 (£65) and Front Season at £65 (£63).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $80 ($80) and EUAs are at €66 (€63). Henry Hub is at $2.64 ($2.45) and JKM is at $9.58 ($9.34) with TTF Equiv of $9.255 ($8.65).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.