Market Insight
Tony Jordan
23 January 2024

Market Insights 23/01/2024


A bearish start to the week, as those temperatures start to increase after a few days of cold.

No change on the outlook in terms of supply which remains stable, gas storage which remains just under 75% or temperatures which remain to show above or close to seasonal normal for the weeks ahead.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €27.26 (from €27.89) and the NBP Front Month contract at 66.91p (from 69.86p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 350mcm (353). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 40.7mcm (38.8) and Sudzha at 42.4mcm (40.5). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 74.44% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 10.

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €27, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €27, Front Season €28 (vs €27 and €29)
Curve NBP Front Month 67p, Front Season 68p (vs 70p and 70p)
UK Gas NBP spot 67p (from 71p)
UK Power DA £59 (from £55)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £65 (£70) and Front Season at £62 (£65).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $80 ($79) and EUAs are at €62 (€64). Henry Hub is at $2.42 ($2.52) and JKM is at $9.41 ($9.59) with TTF Equiv of $8.70 ($9.07).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.