Market Insight
Tony Jordan
22 January 2024

Market Insights 22/01/2024


A slight uptick to end the week in Fridays session, but overall a bearish week last week.

Temperatures have now started to increase and are expected to be above seasonal normal for the coming weeks as forecasts now start to look towards the end of the winter delivery period.

That may give further confidence in the market and already this morning we see the market discounting by around a further 5% to Fridays close.

Friday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €28.43 (from €27.89) and the NBP Front Month contract at 69.86p (from 68.342p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 353mcm (353). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 38.8mcm (40.8) and Sudzha at 40.5mcm (42.4). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 75.01% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 7.

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €27, DOWN €1 to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €27, Front Season €29 (vs €28 and €28)
Curve NBP Front Month 70p, Front Season 70p (vs 68p and 69p)
UK Gas NBP spot 71p (from 70p)
UK Power DA £55 (from £70)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £70 (£68) and Front Season at £65 (£62).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $79 ($79) and EUAs are at €64 (€63). Henry Hub is at $2.52 ($2.70) and JKM is at $9.59 ($9.56) with TTF Equiv of $9.07 ($8.88).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.