Market Insight
Tony Jordan
19 January 2024

Market Insights 19/01/2024


A level session seen yesterday after a series of bearish ones of late as the market continues to hold at some long-term lows and below key levels such as €30/MWh and 70p/therm on the front month gas contracts.

The latest weather runs show that the cold spell now passes (this weekend) and temperatures are expected to rise above, and stay above, seasonal normal for the comings weeks.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €27.89 (from €27.71) and the NBP Front Month contract at 68.42p (from 68.36p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 353mcm (360). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 40.8mcm (41.0) and Sudzha at 42.4mcm (42.4). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 77.47% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 9.

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €29, UP €1 to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €29, Front Season €28 (vs €28 and €28)
Curve NBP Front Month 68p, Front Season 69p (vs 68p and 68p)
UK Gas NBP spot 70p (from 62p)
UK Power DA £70 (from £75)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £68 (£68) and Front Season at £62 (£62).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $79 ($78) and EUAs are at €63 (€63). Henry Hub is at $2.70 ($2.87) and JKM is at $9.56 ($9.55) with TTF Equiv of $8.88 ($8.82).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.