Market Insight
Tony Jordan
18 January 2024

Market Insights 18/01/2024


The bearish sentiment continues.

A further downward movement in yesterdays session to push values to new lows, not seen for some time, were welcomed backed by comfortable supply levels and a temperature forecast towards the end of winter that suggests no further cold spells for the coming weeks.

It wasn’t so long ago we saw price movements within a day that were the value of todays market.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €27.71 (from €29.66) and the NBP Front Month contract at 68.36p (from 73.52p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 360mcm (350). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 41.0mcm (41.1) and Sudzha at 42.4mcm (42.4). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 77.99% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 8.

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €28, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €28, Front Season €28 (vs €28 and €30)
Curve NBP Front Month 68p, Front Season 68p (vs 74p and 73p)
UK Gas NBP spot 62p (from 75p)
UK Power DA £75 (from £87)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £68 (£72) and Front Season at £62 (£66).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $78 ($78) and EUAs are at €63 (€66). Henry Hub is at $2.87 ($2.90) and JKM is at $9.55 ($10.03) with TTF Equiv of $8.82 ($9.47).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.