Market Insight
Tony Jordan
15 January 2024

Market Insights 15/01/2024


And we’re back! Welcome to our first daily report of 2024 after a couple of weeks break and a Happy New Year to all of our readers.

Remember the numbers in brackets are the values shown from our last report on 22nd December and not the previous days settlement. This shows that the curve has continued to fall whilst we’ve been off, although spot prices have increased as the colder weather crept in. That is expected to stay for another week before temperatures rise once again to above, or close to, seasonal normal until the end of February.

Storage levels hold impressive levels still around 80%. The current concern is escalation around the Red Sea and the impact on shipping costs which may in turn influence LNG prices. At the moment it is too early to speculate a further energy crisis, although some media outlets are claiming to expect one. With prices continuing to hold trend in recent weeks it would, at this point in time, be possible to mitigate such an impact – unlike last time.

QatarEnergy have said that whilst there is no impact to its LNG production, it has currently halted shipping via the Red Sea and will travel via the Cape of Good Hope.

Friday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €31.99 (from €34.20) and the NBP Front Month contract at 79.92p (from 85.55p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 339mcm (for GD 15/1 – Gassco system undergoing upgrade) from Norway (355). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 39.3mcm (42.0) and Sudzha at 40.5mcm (42.4). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 79.72% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 7 (12).

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €31, DOWN €1 to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €31, Front Season €32 (vs €32 and €34)
Curve NBP Front Month 80p, Front Season 79p (vs 86p and 85p)
UK Gas NBP spot 80p (from 75p)
UK Power DA £78 (from £37)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £78 (£85) and Front Season at £71 (£81).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $78 ($79) and EUAs are at €66 (€78). Henry Hub is at $3.31 ($2.57) and JKM is at $10.66 ($11.94) with TTF Equiv of $10.29 ($11.02).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.