Market Insight
Tony Jordan
22 December 2023

Market Insights 22/12/2023


This will be our last daily report of 2023, and we shall return on 15th January after a well-earned break. We hope you have a great Christmas and New Year break yourselves.

Another small rise in yesterdays session as the impact of shipping diversions in the Red Sea continue to be assessed – once again global influences on markets, but so far minimal impact as the overall direction of the market in recent weeks has continued downwards overall.

The latest temperature forecasts show a near term ‘warm’ spell over the festive season, before getting back close, and sticking, to seasonal normal throughout January.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €34.20 (from €33.52) and the NBP Front Month contract at 85.55p (from 83.40p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 355mcm from Norway (353). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 42.0mcm (42.5) and Sudzha at 42.4mcm (42.4). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 87.63% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 12.

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €34, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €34, Front Season €34 (vs €34 and €34)
Curve NBP Front Month 86p, Front Season 85p (vs 83p and 84p)
UK Gas NBP spot 75p (from 72p)
UK Power DA £37 (from £43)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £85 (£83) and Front Season at £81 (£77).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $79 ($80) and EUAs are at €78 (€76). Henry Hub is at $2.57 ($2.45) and JKM is at $11.94 ($11.81) with TTF Equiv of $11.02 ($10.78).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.