Market Insight
Tony Jordan
21 December 2023

Market Insights 21/12/2023


Another small bounce seen in yesterdays session as the market looks for a comfortable position following a series of downward sessions in recent weeks.

It’s almost as if we’re back to a normal, with sessions moving in either direction but only by small movements … a penny or two per therm, a pound/Euro or two per MWh. It wasn’t so long ago these movements were huge. This will be a huge welcome to market as we start to distance ourselves from the extreme volatility of 2021 and 2022 and quickly head into 2024.

With that in mind, tomorrow will be our last report of 2023 before taking our Xmas break. We will return on 15th January. We’d like to wish all of our followers a Merry Christmas and Happy New Year.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €33.52 (from €32.57) and the NBP Front Month contract at 83.40p (from 80.55p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 353mcm from Norway (357). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 42.5mcm (43.1) and Sudzha at 42.4mcm (42.4). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 87.95% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 10.

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €35, UP €1 to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €35, Front Season €34 (vs €34 and €33)
Curve NBP Front Month 83p, Front Season 84p (vs 81p and 82p)
UK Gas NBP spot 72p (from 75p)
UK Power DA £43 (from £58)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £83 (£79) and Front Season at £77 (£75).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $80 ($79) and EUAs are at €76 (€72). Henry Hub is at $2.45 ($2.49) and JKM is at $11.81 ($11.78) with TTF Equiv of $10.78 ($10.48).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.