Market Insight
Tony Jordan
20 December 2023

Market Insights 20/12/2023


As you were. After a reaction to attacks on ships in the Red Sea, which caused some concern around impact to deliveries of key fuels, markets returned to their bearish sentiment in yesterdays session – pushing to yet new long term lows.

Meanwhile Norways Equinor and Germanys SEFE Securing Energy for Europe GmbH (SEFE), formally Russias European arm of Gazprom announced a 10bcm per year deal starting in January for 10 years as Germany seeks to replace Russian gas for the longer term. Gazprom previously provided around 200bcm per year towards Europe, but that has dropped to around 15% of that value for 2023.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €32.57 (from €35.52) and the NBP Front Month contract at 80.55p (from 88.74p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 357mcm from Norway (359). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 43.1mcm (42.1) and Sudzha at 42.4mcm (42.4). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 88.35% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 10.

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €34, UP €1 to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €34, Front Season €33 (vs €33 and €35)
Curve NBP Front Month 81p, Front Season 82p (vs 89p and 88p)
UK Gas NBP spot 75p (from 80p)
UK Power DA £58 (from £67)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £79 (£85) and Front Season at £75 (£80).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $79 ($78) and EUAs are at €72 (€72). Henry Hub is at $2.49 ($2.50) and JKM is at $11.78 ($12.40) with TTF Equiv of $10.48 ($11.38).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.