Market Insight
Tony Jordan
19 December 2023

Market Insights 19/12/2023


An unsurprising uptick seen in yesterdays session after reaching low points following several bearish sessions of late.

The uptick however appears to be in response to several attacks on ships in the Red Sea of late and concerns around impacts of rerouting cargoes.

There are no change to the underlaying market fundamentals, including the temperature outlooks to the end of January which remain at or close to seasonal normal levels in the latest long term runs.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €35.52 (from €33.19) and the NBP Front Month contract at 88.74p (from 82.55p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 359mcm from Norway (354). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 42.1mcm (40.9) and Sudzha at 42.4mcm (41.3). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 88.69% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 11.

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €34, DOWN €2 to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €34, Front Season €35 (vs €36 and €34)
Curve NBP Front Month 89p, Front Season 88p (vs 83p and 83p)
UK Gas NBP spot 80p (from 76p)
UK Power DA £67 (from £69)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £85 (£80) and Front Season at £80 (£76).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $78 ($77) and EUAs are at €72 (€66). Henry Hub is at $2.50 ($2.49) and JKM is at $12.40 ($11.77) with TTF Equiv of $11.38 ($10.62).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.