Market Insight
Tony Jordan
15 December 2023

Market Insights 15/12/2023


An unwinding of the previous days gains saw prices push back towards the recent lows in yesterdays session.

There is continued confidence in the near-term outlook with regard to supply levels and temperature forecasts out to the end of January showing very close to seasonal normal levels throughout.

This is in stark contrast to this time last year when prices were €140 on the TTF, 340p on the NBP and over £500 on UK power.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €34.85 (from €35.81) and the NBP Front Month contract at 86.80p (from 89.65p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 356mcm from Norway (357). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 42.3mcm (42.6) and Sudzha at 42.4mcm (42.4). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 89.74% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 14.

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €34, DOWN €1 to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €34, Front Season €35 (vs €35 and €36)
Curve NBP Front Month 87p, Front Season 87p (vs 90p and 89p)
UK Gas NBP spot 77p (from 84p)
UK Power DA £78 (from £83)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £82 (£84) and Front Season at £79 (£80).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $77 ($74) and EUAs are at €67 (€69). Henry Hub is at $2.39 ($2.34) and JKM is at $15.33 ($15.46) with TTF Equiv of $11.24 ($11.33).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.