Market Insight
Tony Jordan
13 December 2023

Market Insights 13/12/2023


A further bearish session seen yesterday as the market pushes to new long term lows on the back of a high degree of comfort with the winter delivery so far.

Barring any surprises, the supply and demand mix is forecast to be comfortably met. That said we’ve watched the market struggle get below key levels for much of this year, typically the 100p/£100 mark for UK prices, and now that we are below and heading in the right direction, should not expect levels to get back to ‘pre crisis’ levels just yet.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €34.70 (from €36.12) and the NBP Front Month contract at 86.70p (from 90.18p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 353mcm from Norway (352). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 42.5mcm (42.3) and Sudzha at 42.4mcm (42.4). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 90.43% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 15.

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €35, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €35, Front Season €35 (vs €35 and €36)
Curve NBP Front Month 87p, Front Season 87p (vs 90p and 90p)
UK Gas NBP spot 83p (from 87p)
UK Power DA £82 (from £84)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £82 (£84) and Front Season at £77 (£80).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $73 ($76) and EUAs are at €68 (€67). Henry Hub is at $2.31 ($2.43) and JKM is at $15.62 ($15.75) with TTF Equiv of $10.98 ($11.39).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.