Market Insight
Tony Jordan
12 December 2023

Market Insights 12/12/2023


A sizeable move downwards in yesterdays session to start the week off.

The latest weather runs show at or just above seasonal normal temperatures to be expected until early January which will further help keep panic at bay. At the same time, plenty of LNG heading towards Europe and the gas storage levels hold above 90% resulting in exit forecasts come the end of winter to show comfortable levels.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €36.12 (from €38.60) and the NBP Front Month contract at 90.18p (from 97.10p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 352mcm from Norway (347). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 42.3mcm (42.0) and Sudzha at 42.4mcm (41.2). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 90.75% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 19.

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €36, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €36, Front Season €36 (vs €36 and €38)
Curve NBP Front Month 90p, Front Season 90p (vs 97p and 96p)
UK Gas NBP spot 87p (from 92p)
UK Power DA £84 (from £85)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £84 (£90) and Front Season at £80 (£84).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $76 ($76) and EUAs are at €67 (€69). Henry Hub is at $2.43 ($2.58) and JKM is at $15.75 ($15.98) with TTF Equiv of $11.39 ($12.17).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.