Market Insight
Tony Jordan
11 December 2023

Market Insights 11/12/2023


A downward end to the week as markets showed yet another bearish session to unwind the previous days gains.

With the colder weather now passing, and expected to stay close to seasonal normal for the coming weeks, markets appear once again calmed. Combined with a flurry of LNG cargoes scheduled Europe-bound for the weeks ahead, including 18 heading for the UK, the markets are pushing lower still this morning.

Friday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €38.60 (from €39.97) and the NBP Front Month contract at 97.10p (from 99.94p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 347mcm from Norway (351). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 42.0mcm (43.0) and Sudzha at 41.2mcm (42.4). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 91.12% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 18.

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €36, DOWN €3 to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €36, Front Season €38 (vs €39 and €39)
Curve NBP Front Month 97p, Front Season 96p (vs 100p and 98p)
UK Gas NBP spot 92p (from 102p)
UK Power DA £85 (from £89)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £90 (£93) and Front Season at £84 (£86).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $76 ($74) and EUAs are at €69 (€70). Henry Hub is at $2.58 ($2.59) and JKM is at $15.98 ($16.05) with TTF Equiv of $12.17 ($12.66).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.