Market Insight
Tony Jordan
8 December 2023

Market Insights 08/12/2023


A further small uptick seen in yesterdays session following several days of downward movements over the past week.

The latest temperature forecasts continue to show a warm few days ahead followed by close to seasonal normal until well into January. Couple that with continuing healthy gas storage levels and increased activity on the LNG front will help markets hold a comfortable state as we look to exit the first half of winter delivery in the weeks ahead.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €39.97 (from €39.31) and the NBP Front Month contract at 9.94p (from 98.25p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 351mcm from Norway (352). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 43.0mcm (43.0) and Sudzha at 42.4mcm (42.4). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 92.15% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 14.

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €41, UP €1 to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €40, Front Season €39 (vs €40 and €39)
Curve NBP Front Month 100p, Front Season 98p (vs 98p and 98p)
UK Gas NBP spot 102p (from 101p)
UK Power DA £89 (from £88)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £93 (£91) and Front Season at £86 (£84).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $74 ($74) and EUAs are at €70 (€69). Henry Hub is at $2.59 ($2.57) and JKM is at $16.05 ($16.01) with TTF Equiv of $12.66 ($12.44).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.