Market Insight
Tony Jordan
6 December 2023

Market Insights 06/12/2023


A further bearish session seen yesterday as the market pushes to new lows and through some crucial psychological levels on the front contracts.

Continued healthy flows and seasonal normal weather are helping to give comfort to the market.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €38.13 (from €40.10) and the NBP Front Month contract at 95.38p (from 100.76p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 348mcm from Norway (344). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 45.2mcm (48.2) and Sudzha at 42.4mcm (42.4). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 93.31% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 10.

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €38, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €38, Front Season €38 (vs €38 and €40)
Curve NBP Front Month 95p, Front Season 94p (vs 101p and 99p)
UK Gas NBP spot 95p (from 93p)
UK Power DA £111 (from £102)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £90 (£95) and Front Season at £83 (£88).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $77 ($78) and EUAs are at €69 (€70). Henry Hub is at $2.71 ($2.69) and JKM is at $16.06 ($16.05) with TTF Equiv of $12.06 ($12.73).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.