Market Insight
Tony Jordan
5 December 2023

Market Insights 05/12/2023


A bearish session yesterday, pushing prices to recent lows.

The latest forecasts show some warmer temperatures to be expected in the coming days before settling at seasonal normal levels until mid-January. This will be a level of comfort for the market, alongside healthy supply with the arrival of plenty of LNG expected in the coming weeks in addition to maintaining strong gas stocks.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €40.10 (from €43.50) and the NBP Front Month contract at 100.76p (from 109.65p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 344mcm from Norway (354). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 48.2mcm (45.1) and Sudzha at 42.4mcm (42.1). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 93.90% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 11.

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €39, DOWN €1 to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €39, Front Season €40 (vs €40 and €43)
Curve NBP Front Month 101p, Front Season 99p (vs 110p and 107p)
UK Gas NBP spot 93p (from 104p)
UK Power DA £102 (from £101)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £95 (£102) and Front Season at £88 (£93).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $78 ($79) and EUAs are at €70 (€73). Henry Hub is at $2.69 ($2.81) and JKM is at $16.05 ($16.25) with TTF Equiv of $12.73 ($13.88).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.