Market Insight
Tony Jordan
4 December 2023

Market Insights 04/12/2023


An upward movement in Fridays session to end the week as the colder weather took hold across much of the UK.

This week temperatures are expected to increase back towards seasonal normal levels and stay there until into the new year, according to the latest forecasts.

Friday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €43.50 (from €42.09) and the NBP Front Month contract at 109.65p (from 107.13p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 354mcm from Norway (352). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 45.1mcm (49.5) and Sudzha at 42.1mcm (42.4). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 94.39% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 7.

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €42, DOWN €2 to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €42, Front Season €43 (vs €44 and €41)
Curve NBP Front Month 110p, Front Season 107p (vs 106p and 102p)
UK Gas NBP spot 104p (from 105p)
UK Power DA £101 (from £142)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £102 (£101) and Front Season at £93 (£91).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $79 ($81) and EUAs are at €73 (€71). Henry Hub is at $2.81 ($2.80) and JKM is at $16.25 ($16.14) with TTF Equiv of $13.88 ($13.47).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.