Market Insight
Tony Jordan
1 December 2023

Market Insights 01/12/2023


Welcome along to December.

Despite the cold temperatures, strong flows have kept the market in check and we saw just a small rise in yesterdays session.

The temperatures are expected to stay lower than seasonal normal for a few more days, before getting back to seasonal normal levels late next week.

National Grid ESO have called for another Demand Flexibility Service session this evening following Wednesdays session.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €42.09 (from €41.31) and the NBP Front Month contract at 107.13p (from 105.66p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 352mcm from Norway (353). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 49.5mcm (50.4) and Sudzha at 42.4mcm (42.4). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 95.93% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 7.

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €43, UP €1 to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €43, Front Season €41 (vs €42 and €41)
Curve NBP Front Month 106p, Front Season 102p (vs 107p and 104p)
UK Gas NBP spot 105p (from 103p)
UK Power DA £142 (from £143)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £101 (£92) and Front Season at £91 (£91).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $81 ($83) and EUAs are at €71 (€71). Henry Hub is at $2.80 ($2.80) and JKM is at $16.14 ($16.25) with TTF Equiv of $13.47 ($13.31).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.