Market Insight
Tony Jordan
30 November 2023

Market Insights 30/11/2023


As the December front month contract came to a close, the bearish sentiment continued in yesterdays session.

This morning we see impressive flow levels from both Norway and also at Velke Kapusany, whilst retaining high EU gas storage levels which are still holding above 96%.

That is despite the current cold snap, expected to last a few more days yet, as National Grid ESO held the first live Demand Flexibility Service (DFS) event of this winter season yesterday evening. This is the scheme that pays eligible households to significantly reduce their electricity consumption in a set period and be paid. The cost of the 90 minute session was almost £4,500/MWh, vs prices below £300/MWh both on the day ahead and cashout markets.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €41.31 (from €42.77) and the NBP Front Month contract at 105.66p (from 108.68p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 353mcm from Norway (341). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 50.4mcm (45.7) and Sudzha at 42.4mcm (42.4). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 96.51% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 7.

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €41, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €41, Front Season €41 (vs €41 and €43)
Curve NBP Front Month 106p, Front Season 102p (vs 109p and 108p)
UK Gas NBP spot 103p (from 110p)
UK Power DA £143 (from £125)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £92 (£96) and Front Season at £91 (£96).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $83 ($82) and EUAs are at €71 (€73). Henry Hub is at $2.80 ($2.84) and JKM is at $16.25 ($16.42) with TTF Equiv of $13.31 ($13.78).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.