Market Insight
Tony Jordan
28 November 2023

Market Insights 28/11/2023


A bearish start to the week as we see markets dip in the final days of November.

Despite a few cold days ahead, strong stock levels and flows including plenty of LNG into December keep confidence levels high.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €43.98 (from €46.66) and the NBP Front Month contract at 112.21p (from 119.87p).

Aasta Hansteen on unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 346mcm from Norway (346). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 43.0mcm (36.2) and Sudzha at 42.4mcm (39.2). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 97.43% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 8.

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €44, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €44, Front Season €44 (vs €44 and €46)
Curve NBP Front Month 112p, Front Season 111p (vs 120p and 117p)
UK Gas NBP spot 115p (from 119p)
UK Power DA £112 (from £107)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £98 (£103) and Front Season at £99 (£104).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $80 ($81) and EUAs are at €74 (€77). Henry Hub is at $2.79 ($2.86) and JKM is at $16.51 ($17.10) with TTF Equiv of $14.09 ($14.95).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.