Market Insight
Tony Jordan
24 November 2023

Market Insights 24/11/2023


Markets were up on the prompt delivery contract yesterday, mostly on the back of near term colder temperature forecasts for the coming weeks.

The latest long term runs show a considerable dip in temperatures this weekend, and remaining below seasonal normal for the first week into December before returning to seasonal normal levels for the second half of the month and into the new year.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €46.83 (from €44.62) and the NBP Front Month contract at 119.87p (from 113.05p).

Aasta Hansteen on unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 343mcm from Norway (358). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 39.0mcm (38.4) and Sudzha at 42.4mcm (42.4). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 98.40% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 4.

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €46, DOWN €1 to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €46, Front Season €46 (vs €47 and €45)
Curve NBP Front Month 120p, Front Season 118p (vs 113p and 113p)
UK Gas NBP spot 122p (from 116p)
UK Power DA £83 (from £76)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £103 (£99) and Front Season at £103 (£98).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $81 ($82) and EUAs are at €77 (€75). Henry Hub is at $2.90 ($2.90) and JKM is at $16.49 ($16.49) with TTF Equiv of $14.97 ($14.22).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.