Market Insight
Tony Jordan
23 November 2023

Market Insights 23/11/2023


A small gain on the prompt delivery contracts and no real movement along the curve as temperature forecasts appear to be the key driver in yesterdays session.

This morning Ofgem announced the January-March 2024 Price Cap. With markets holding relatively steady for a period of time now, with the odd small spike here and there, it is not surprising that the cap level has followed in the same guise. Announcing the annual ‘headline rate’ of £1,928 (compared to £1,834 for the current quarter), an increase of £94, this is based on updated (lower) typical usage. As always it’s important not to view this as a financial cap and focus on the standing charge and unit rates which will apply to actual usage per household.

With the withdrawal of government support seen last winter, this will feel like an actual increase in costs for households. Whilst the Energy Price Guarantee is no longer needed, with bills now below the supported level of £2,500 seen last winter, the absence of the £67 per month discount is not present this winter which have an impact on actual bills delivered to customers.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €44.62 (from €44.07) and the NBP Front Month contract at 113.05p (from 111.82p).

Kollsnes remains on unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 358mcm from Norway (354). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 38.4mcm (38.2) and Sudzha at 42.4mcm (42.4). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 98.69% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 3.

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €46, UP €1 to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €46, Front Season €45 (vs €45 and €45)
Curve NBP Front Month 113p, Front Season 113p (vs 112p and 113p)
UK Gas NBP spot 116p (from 111p)
UK Power DA £76 (from £97)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £99 (£97) and Front Season at £98 (£99).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $82 ($82) and EUAs are at €75 (€75). Henry Hub is at $2.90 ($2.85) and JKM is at $16.49 ($16.47) with TTF Equiv of $14.22 ($14.70).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.